World Energy Outlook 2011

World Energy Outlook 2011 brings together the latest data, policy developments, and the experience of another year to provide robust analysis and insight into global energy markets, today and for the next 25 years.

Population growth

World Energy Outlook 2011 focuses on the increase in population growth that the world is facing, and the challenges that this brings.

The number of people without access to electricity remained unacceptably high at 1.3 billion, around 20 % of the world’s population. Despite the priority in many countries to increase energy efficiency, global energy intensity worsened for the second straight year.

The New Policies Scenario shows that the demand for energy grows strongly, and increases by one-third from 2010 to 2035. The assumptions of a global population that increases by 1.7 billion people and 3.5 % annual average growth in the global economy generate ever-higher demand for energy services and mobility.

The dynamics of energy markets are increasingly determined by countries outside the OECD. Non-OECD countries account for 90 % of population growth, 70 % of the increase in economic output and 90 % of energy demand growth over the period from 2010 to 2035. China consolidates its position as the world’s largest energy consumer: in 2035 it consumes nearly 70 % more energy than the United States, the second-largest consumer, even though, by then, per-capita energy consumption in China is still less than half the level in the United States. The rates of growth in energy consumption in India, Indonesia, Brazil and the Middle East are even faster than in China.

Renewable energy in the transport sector

All of the net increase in oil demand comes from the transport sector in emerging economies, as economic growth pushes up demand for personal mobility and freight. Oil demand (excluding biofuels) rises from 87 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2010 to 99 mb/d in 2035. The total number of passenger cars doubles to almost 1.7 billion in 2035, which underlines the need for renewable sources of energy.

The amount of biofuels quadruples to four million barrels per day. This means that even though the need for fossil fuel will rise, the amount of fossil fuel in the energy consumption will fall from 81 % in 2010 to 75 % in 2035.

The amount of non-hydro renewable energy rises from 3 % in 2009 to 15 % in 2035. The driving forces behind this development are China and Europe, which will be responsible for about half of this growth.